2016 bellwether counties 2016 bellwether counties

The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. 2020 Election (1210) Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Just how big is it? George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Joe Biden (631) This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. 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From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Free and open-source. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). These are the bellwether counties. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). The divisions were everywhere. 11. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. That report was issued on Nov. 12. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. It almost became religious.". It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Thank you for supporting our journalism. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. That's 14 in a row. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Website Updates Paused Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. 6. It's the wrong question. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! It is easy to gloss over this. In communities . The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. There are 391 such counties. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Arapahoe County. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Seriously. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Trump won the other 18 counties. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county.